With Oklahoma and Texas clear to leave, it seems like the Big 12 is dead. Personally I don't see a merger between the Big 12 and Big East going to happen. I think schools like: West Virgina, New Jersey Rutgers, and Missouri will try to fine greener pasters then staying in a jumbled mess. Now the plus side of a merged Big 12 and Big East conference is it'll be a good basketball conference, but that doesn't matter in NCAA sports anymore. All these conference realignment debates are tied to football because that is where the money is. To be honest, I can't see the Big East survive, but the atheletic directors are having a meeting tonight to discuss the Big East's future. As the dust clears, we'll see what happens to the Big East.
As an alum from Mizzou, a Big 12 school, I'm glued to the news in regaring to the Big 12 and it's schools. Assuming Texas and OU head to the Pac 12, here are my guesses to what'll happen. First of all, I'm surprised Texas might go to the Pac 12. I orginally thought they might go independent as they have their own network, and I'm curious how that will play out down the road if the Pac 12 takes them. No matter how much Texas wants their own network, there is no way the Pac 12 will allow that network to survive unless they adapt Pac 12 programing. That said, if the Big East survives, I could see them taking Texas as they'll probably allow that network to survive in order to have them in their conference. As things look right now, it looks like Texas has a spot in the Pac 12, but we'll see what happens to the Longhorn Network.
It seems like OU is pose for the Pac 12, but I don't see the Pac 12 stopping with only 14 members. I wouldn't be surprised if they took Oklahoma State and Texas Tech. My reasoning for Oklahoma State is they have a solid football program, and I know Oklahoma will prefer to bring them along to the Pac 12. That said, OU will jump the Big 12 ship alone if they have to for their own interests. Lastly I see Texas Tech joining the Pac 12. Texas Tech has a solid football program, and they are another rival for: Texas, OU, and OK State. In regards to Baylor in the South, I see them being left out of a BCS conference. They aren't attractable enough to join a BCS conference.
What does conference realignment look like to the Big 12 North leftovers? If we go back to OK State and Texas Tech, lets say they don't go to the Pac 12, then I see Kansas and Kansas State heading West. Both schools aren't the best in football, but they are big schools and at least have some appeal in football. Since Kansas State has finally gotten decent again; they could be a good addition to the Pac 12. I also see Kansas State wanting to bring their counterpart Kansas along. Both have a good rivarly, and Kansas might have another breakthrough season again in the near future. Otherwise if OK State and Texas Tech head to the Pac 12, I don't see them joining anywhere. The Big 10 is being stubborn right now, and they are still focus on getting ND, and possibly the New Jersey Rutgers. ND is an obvious fit for the Big 10, and the NJ Rutgers will bring the NYC tv market which is the sole reason the Big 10 them. If ND stays independent, and lets say the Big 10 adds NJ Rutgers, they'll either add one more school, or 3 more schools. Right now I don't see them expanding pass 14 teams, and they can survive as a 14 school conference. Now if ND and NJ Rutgers refuse to go to the Big 10, then I see Kansas and Kansas State heading to the Big 10 if they decide to add 2 more teams. Otherwise, they might be left behind with Iowa State. I don't see Iowa State going anywhere as they don't bring much to the table. Most of their bowl apperances are tied to 6-6 records, and they don't bring anything with them besides their alumni base.
Finally there is my school, Mizzou. The first scenario I see is Mizzou to the Big 10. Geographically they would fit well in the Big 10. They have a rivarly with Illinois and Nebraska. In addition, they have had some good games against Iowa in the past. Again, the Big 10 is stubborn. The Big 10 is still focused on getting ND, and most likely the NJ Rutgers because of their tv market. But if one of those schools decide to stay put, then Mizzou seems like the best fit as the 14th team. Otherwise, it seems like the SEC has their eyes on Mizzou if WVU decides to stay put, or join the ACC. The SEC needs a 14th member, and Mizzou would be a good fit. They have a rivarly with Arkansas, and they bring a decent football program along with a solid tv market. That is my guess of where Mizzou goes as I can't see them being left out. I'm not saying that as an alumni, but I'm saying that by looking at why certain teams are moving over others. Mizzou has consistently: gone to several bowl games recently, they have been a top 25 caliber team in recent years, they bring the St Louis and Kansas City tv markets, and finally they are a large school. They have a significant presence in the area, and I can't see them being left behind due to what they bring to the table. The problem with Kansas and Kansas State is their influence is limited to mostly KC when it comes to a major city market, and that city is split among several schools. Furthermore, Kansas and Kansas State aren't the most appealing schools when it comes to football. As of now, I only see Mizzou from the Big 12 North being able to survive the conference realignment battle. These are my guesses of how things will play out for the Big 12 schools.