Posted on: September 27, 2011 11:57 am
With the Big 12's future still uncertain, and the SEC needing a 14th member, is Missouri the most logical choice to join the SEC? I've talked about conference realignment a lot, and I would prefer Mizzou to head to the Big 10 over the SEC. It is mostly a personal preference due to geographical ties to the Big 10, and the potential rivarlies that the Big 10 brings excites me more than the SEC rivarlies. I would love to see an annual football game with Iowa and Illinois every year, and even a Northwestern game would be fun. Missouri has played Northwestern and Iowa in recent years in bowl games, and both games were exciting to watch. As a fan, it would be cool see these games every year. Unfortunately, the Big 10 is focus on tv markets only by looking at ND and NJ Rutgers. The ND pickup makes sense, but going after NJ Rutgers is just stupid. I understand the Big 10 wanting to penetrate the NYC tv market, but that market is so diverse with teams that the Rutgers is a small percentage of overall sports market. Considering the Rutgers aren't a traditional football powerhouse, or consistent enough in recent years to be a BCS contender, their football fan support is sporadic. If the Rutgers are added to the Big 10, I wouldn't be surprised their TV share and money they bring will be dissapointing considering they are a NYC area team. If you don't believe me, then look at the Islanders. They show that not every team in the NYC area brings in money.
Since the Big 10 is most likely going to look elsewhere if they expand, then Mizzou has two options: Stay in the Big 12 (-3), or head to the SEC while that 14th spot is still open. As things look today, it seems like a better idea to jump ship. To be fair, the Big 12 has a few advantages over the SEC in regards to Mizzou. The first big reason will be the clout Mizzou has build up in the Big 12. In the last few years, Mizzou has become arespectable program in the conference. For years they were a laughing stock, but Pinkel has built up this team to be competitive each year. Mizzou has been to a bowl game every year since 2005. In addition to being a bowl caliber team, Mizzou has become a top 25 caliber team. Granted, Mizzou in 2007 was probably the only team to be considered a championship caliber team, but being a top 25 caliber team with 8 or 9 wins a season in the last few years is impressive. The downside of moving to the SEC is the competition will be tougher for Mizzou, and they will most likely be a mid-level team in the SEC right now. Otherwise, the only other benefits is tradition with the Big 12. The Big 12 was basically an expansion of the Big 8 with the addition of the Texas schools from the SWC, and the old rivarlies with Kansas, Kansas State, and even OU in the last couple of years ago will just be history. Since the Big 12 is very unstable right now, Mizzou has to look out for their best interests.
While the SEC might not be perfect for Mizzou, it is at least stable unlike the Big 12, and can provide some good benefits in the long run. The biggest benefit will be exposure. The Big 12 is awful when it comes to their TV contracts. Mizzou was on pay per view a couple of weeks ago, and I know Western Illinois isn't a TV draw, but compare that to the SEC. I can't think of a team in the SEC who is on pay per view. Even Vanderbilt gets more ESPN apperances than Mizzou does in a given year. The SEC tv package is amazing with just about every one of their teams are shown on national tv throughout the year on CBS, ABC, and ESPN. If you look up the SEC tv contract, none of their teams are on pay per view. At worst, they are avaliable on ESPN3 which is widely avalialbe on most internet providers. And to be honest, as a fan of a top 25 caliber team in a BCS conference shouldn't pay 50 bucks to watch my team. That failure falls on the Big 12 as their only chance to have their own network, like the Big 10 network, became the Longhorn Network due to the incompetence of Dan Beebe. Furthermore, that exposure will bring in more money and help Mizzou's recruiting efforts. Hopefully in the long run with the additional exposure will bring in better players and build a stronger team. In addition of the tv contract the SEC has, they have the best bowl tie ins. They have tie ins with 4 New Years caliber bowls: The Outback, The Gator Bowl, The Capital One Bowl, and the Sugar Bowl. I say New Years caliber bowls as these 4 bowl games are traditionally on, or around New Years Day, and feature good teams. Unfortunately, Bowl games nowadays have tarnish the tradition with New Years by pushing crap like the GoDaddy.com bowl. That is a different argument entirely, so lets get back to bowl tie ins. In comparison to the Big 12 who has only two New Years Bowl games: The Fiesta Bowl, and the Cotton Bowl. The third best game for the Big 12 is the Holliday Bowl, and that is usually a good game, but doesn't bring the excitness or exposure like the SEC New Years bowls. As a football fan, I would be excited to see Mizzou in better bowl games.
The SEC may not be the perfect fit for Mizzou, but it is evident it'll be a lot better than the Big 12 right now. Mizzou might struggle early on in the SEC, but if Pinkel could build a good football team from nothing in the Big 12, then he can do it again. This is just my take on benefits and cons with Mizzou joining the SEC, and it is evident that joining the SEC will be the best choice for Mizzou. I hope the board of curators at Mizzou figure out what is best for Mizzou as they start meeting in the near future.
Posted on: September 20, 2011 12:31 pm
Edited on: September 20, 2011 3:28 pm
With Oklahoma and Texas clear to leave, it seems like the Big 12 is dead. Personally I don't see a merger between the Big 12 and Big East going to happen. I think schools like: West Virgina, New Jersey Rutgers, and Missouri will try to fine greener pasters then staying in a jumbled mess. Now the plus side of a merged Big 12 and Big East conference is it'll be a good basketball conference, but that doesn't matter in NCAA sports anymore. All these conference realignment debates are tied to football because that is where the money is. To be honest, I can't see the Big East survive, but the atheletic directors are having a meeting tonight to discuss the Big East's future. As the dust clears, we'll see what happens to the Big East.
As an alum from Mizzou, a Big 12 school, I'm glued to the news in regaring to the Big 12 and it's schools. Assuming Texas and OU head to the Pac 12, here are my guesses to what'll happen. First of all, I'm surprised Texas might go to the Pac 12. I orginally thought they might go independent as they have their own network, and I'm curious how that will play out down the road if the Pac 12 takes them. No matter how much Texas wants their own network, there is no way the Pac 12 will allow that network to survive unless they adapt Pac 12 programing. That said, if the Big East survives, I could see them taking Texas as they'll probably allow that network to survive in order to have them in their conference. As things look right now, it looks like Texas has a spot in the Pac 12, but we'll see what happens to the Longhorn Network.
It seems like OU is pose for the Pac 12, but I don't see the Pac 12 stopping with only 14 members. I wouldn't be surprised if they took Oklahoma State and Texas Tech. My reasoning for Oklahoma State is they have a solid football program, and I know Oklahoma will prefer to bring them along to the Pac 12. That said, OU will jump the Big 12 ship alone if they have to for their own interests. Lastly I see Texas Tech joining the Pac 12. Texas Tech has a solid football program, and they are another rival for: Texas, OU, and OK State. In regards to Baylor in the South, I see them being left out of a BCS conference. They aren't attractable enough to join a BCS conference.
What does conference realignment look like to the Big 12 North leftovers? If we go back to OK State and Texas Tech, lets say they don't go to the Pac 12, then I see Kansas and Kansas State heading West. Both schools aren't the best in football, but they are big schools and at least have some appeal in football. Since Kansas State has finally gotten decent again; they could be a good addition to the Pac 12. I also see Kansas State wanting to bring their counterpart Kansas along. Both have a good rivarly, and Kansas might have another breakthrough season again in the near future. Otherwise if OK State and Texas Tech head to the Pac 12, I don't see them joining anywhere. The Big 10 is being stubborn right now, and they are still focus on getting ND, and possibly the New Jersey Rutgers. ND is an obvious fit for the Big 10, and the NJ Rutgers will bring the NYC tv market which is the sole reason the Big 10 them. If ND stays independent, and lets say the Big 10 adds NJ Rutgers, they'll either add one more school, or 3 more schools. Right now I don't see them expanding pass 14 teams, and they can survive as a 14 school conference. Now if ND and NJ Rutgers refuse to go to the Big 10, then I see Kansas and Kansas State heading to the Big 10 if they decide to add 2 more teams. Otherwise, they might be left behind with Iowa State. I don't see Iowa State going anywhere as they don't bring much to the table. Most of their bowl apperances are tied to 6-6 records, and they don't bring anything with them besides their alumni base.
Finally there is my school, Mizzou. The first scenario I see is Mizzou to the Big 10. Geographically they would fit well in the Big 10. They have a rivarly with Illinois and Nebraska. In addition, they have had some good games against Iowa in the past. Again, the Big 10 is stubborn. The Big 10 is still focused on getting ND, and most likely the NJ Rutgers because of their tv market. But if one of those schools decide to stay put, then Mizzou seems like the best fit as the 14th team. Otherwise, it seems like the SEC has their eyes on Mizzou if WVU decides to stay put, or join the ACC. The SEC needs a 14th member, and Mizzou would be a good fit. They have a rivarly with Arkansas, and they bring a decent football program along with a solid tv market. That is my guess of where Mizzou goes as I can't see them being left out. I'm not saying that as an alumni, but I'm saying that by looking at why certain teams are moving over others. Mizzou has consistently: gone to several bowl games recently, they have been a top 25 caliber team in recent years, they bring the St Louis and Kansas City tv markets, and finally they are a large school. They have a significant presence in the area, and I can't see them being left behind due to what they bring to the table. The problem with Kansas and Kansas State is their influence is limited to mostly KC when it comes to a major city market, and that city is split among several schools. Furthermore, Kansas and Kansas State aren't the most appealing schools when it comes to football. As of now, I only see Mizzou from the Big 12 North being able to survive the conference realignment battle. These are my guesses of how things will play out for the Big 12 schools.
Posted on: July 27, 2011 9:54 am
In relation to Dodd's column, it looks like the Big 12 will fold in the future and super conferences will emerge. The only way the Big 12 can survive is they have to acquire a couple of more schools. The only candidates will probably come from either the WAC or MWC with schools like Utah, BYU, or Boise State. Otherwise, a smaller conference like the current state of the Big 12 is becoming outdated. A championship game brings in more revenue, and national media attention which is the route the Big 10 and PAC 10 took. Considering that the Big 12 is now the new Big 10, and with Texas basically controlling the conference, it looks like the conference will fold due to the loss of revenue and other schools displeasure of Texas basically controlling the conference now.
That basically leaves several good teams out in the open which leaves conferences like the Big 10, Big East, and the PAC 10 coming in and creating their super-conferences in football. We already have a super conference in basketball with the Big East, so it seems probable that it'll happen in football. Teams like Mizzou, Kansas, and Iowa State will probably get picked up by the Big 10. Unfortunately Mizzou is the only good football program of the three, but at least Mizzou and Kansas can make the Big 10 a super conference in basketball too. The Big 10 already has a strong football and basketball presence, so adding those three will help strengthen both sports. While Iowa State doesn't bring much to the table, they at least keep the old Big 8 rivalries, and Iowa State will keep their rivalry against Iowa, and be able to create a decent rivarly against Illinois when it comes to geography. That goes for Mizzou too as they have a couple of out of conference rivalries against Iowa and Illinois.
In regards to the South Teams, I see the Sooners and Cowboys get picked up by the Big East. They already have TCU, so why not add both OK teams to get the football conference on the right track. In regards to Texas schools, I can see the PAC 10 expanding their presence into the state, or possibly the SEC. Right now I feel like the SEC doesn't want to expand. The Longhorns will probably become independent, or at least in football. They basically have their own network, and they already have one of the strongest brands and areas to recruit from in the country.
Overall I don't like to see the Big 12 to be split up, but once Nebraska left, and other schools feel like they are being controlled by the University of Texas, I can't see this conference survive in the long run. My whole predictions is based on what seems probable when the Big 12 breaks up. The possibilities seem endless, but considering where things are going in College Football, this seems most likely right now.